Last night I started to write a post arguing that the Tories would fall in behind the withdrawal agreement that Rabb and May had negotiated. I became too tired to finish it and didn’t hit publish. This morning, looking at the utter chaos the strong and stable May government is in, I’m rather glad that I didn’t.
I believed that the withdrawal agreement would get through the Commons, due to the flakiness demonstrated in the past by the pro-remain Tory “rebels”, the love of power in the rest of the party, combined with abstentions and pro-Brexit votes from the utter shambles that claims to be the official opposition.
I convinced myself that many of the Brexit ultras would fall in behind the Prime Minister. Once out of the EU – even if it was Brexit in name only – it would be easier for them to chip away at the agreement over time and get what they wanted than go through a no-deal exit. My justification for this reasoning were the reports that Michael Gove had backed the deal in cabinet. Compared to many of the other Brexiters in the Conservative party, he looks like a genius. When Gove does something like that, he’s usually playing out some kind of clever strategy. After all, a no-deal will so damage the country the Tories would be unlikely to see power again in a generation.
But what do I know? Nothing at all, by the looks of it. The green crayon brigade seem firmly in control of the fate of the Conservative party – and the country – this morning. If you weren’t preparing for a no-deal Brexit already, now is the time to start. (While continuing to argue for remaining in the EU, naturally.)