It’s a bit quiet here, as I’m currently the Liberal Democrat candidate in Oakwood ward for the Derby City Council elections on May 2nd.
I’ll be back here on the other side of the results …
A Brexit manufacturing timeline.
Professor Patrick Minford, of Economists for Brexit, says of manufacturing:
Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.
Transitional arrangements should be made, lasting around 10 years, to help industries such as car manufacturing adjust.
Mid-Derbyshire MP Pauline Latham, writing in the Derby Telegraph, explains why she wants to leave the EU:
At the weekend I made up my mind that Britain will be better off leaving the European Union. It is a decision that I have not arrived at easily, having been genuinely undecided since the referendum was announced.
Our manufacturing sector ranks number eight worldwide. The language we speak, English, is the international business language. Our judicial system is consistently rated as one of the least corrupt anywhere and our contract law is regarded across the world as the best for business. We have a long history of innovation, especially here in Derbyshire from even before the industrial revolution.
… Britain has a proud history and we want our children and grandchildren to enjoy the chances and opportunities we have had. I think this is possible outside of the EU and we should be confident that Britain can once again can stand by itself.
(This article has been removed since it was published, but fortunately I kept a copy).
Johan van Zyl, head of Toyota’s European operations, speaking at the Geneva Motor Show to the BBC:
Mr van Zyl said it was vital that there was frictionless trade with the European Union.
He said Toyota would overcome any short-term problems at its Burnaston car plant near Derby, such as logistics, caused by leaving without a deal. But preparation for no-deal has been costly, he said, and in the long-term things could be “very difficult”.
Could work at Burnaston dry up after the current production cycle comes to an end? “The long-term effect could be that if it [Brexit] is very negative, that outcome is possible.”
Constantly improving competitiveness is vital, he said, adding: “But if the hurdles are becoming so high that you cannot achieve it then of course you can’t avoid it [hitting investment].”
Many people probably remember Minford’s comment about exiting the EU “mostly eliminating manufacturing”. It’s easier to forget that he was also arguing for a 10 year transition period prior to the referendum. One presumes he must be horrified by the negative consequences of a no-deal Brexit with no transition period. If so, he seems to be keeping very quiet about it.
As for my MP, Pauline Latham, she clearly forgot about a key reason why UK manufacturing was performing so well in 2016. The frictionless trade provided by the EU single market and customs union and required by Toyota to make sense of their investment here. Had that fact not slipped her mind, I’m sure she wouldn’t have advised her constituents to vote to leave. Surely? It wouldn’t have been rational, given the difficulty she found in making her decision.
We may be at the eleventh hour and 58th minute before Brexit, but if Latham is a genuine champion of manufacturing in Derby, she needs to take Minford’s advice. Rather than the no-deal desired by her ERG colleagues, she must vote for an extension to Article 50. That way, her government may stand an outside chance of obtaining Minford’s 10 year transition period.
Alternatively, she could recognise that she was poorly advised in June 2016 by the Brexiter elite. It would be the mark of a principled politician to acknowledge that, after all, EU membership provides the best chance of giving our children and grandchildren the opportunities we’ve enjoyed since 1973. Voting to revoke Article 50 would be a start to repairing the damage of the last two years.
Last week I was approached by Chris Doidge from BBC Radio Derby. He asked me if I wanted to be interviewed about my no-deal Brexit stockpiling plans. I agreed and we talked last Thursday. Unsurprisingly, the news surrounding the disastrous A52 redevelopment project meant that it wasn’t broadcast until yesterday morning. It’s available on BBC Sounds for around the next four weeks if you’d like to listen to what I said (1 hour 15 minutes in).
Faint praise for the interview included these gems from my daughters:
Listened expecting to cringe throughout but you don’t sound like you’ve totally lost touch with reality so congratulations.
So it’s a no to the underground bunker then?
The BBC later reported that Michael Gove had been warned – yet again – about the appalling consequences of a no-deal Brexit on food supplies. Then there’s also this – taken from the 31st January blog post of Riverford founder Guy Singh-Watson. I’m sure that no-one, whether they voted leave or remain, voted for food riots.
I’d therefore argue that evidence from the experts suggests I continue to have a far more lucid grip on reality than that the Tory leader of Derbyshire County Council.
My view remains the same – even if we do exit without a deal. What you do is entirely up to you.
— Barry Lewis (@CllrBarryLewis) February 11, 2019
With Theresa May having disgracefully kicked the “meaningful” vote can down the road for at least a couple of weeks this afternoon, I’m going to continue stockpiling for the moment.
(*) Thank you to Jessica for providing the headline for this blog article – a very neat precis of what I said …
I’m not necessarily known for the accuracy of my predictions. But having watched the coverage from Downing Street this morning while trying not to utter too many expletives, here’s my latest hostage to fortune.
I expect Theresa May to win the confidence vote tonight, with around 75-80 of her colleagues voting against her.
Not that it changes anything if she does win. It is all a self-indulgent side-show while the country burns – taking Derby with it. I hope that every member of the Conservative party is feeling a deep sense of shame.
— BBC Radio Derby (@BBCDerby) December 12, 2018
A conversation I had earlier on today reminded me that I have a photograph of the Spondon Home Guard. It was taken during World War II, outside the gatehouse lodge at Locko Park. I don’t have a key to the people in the picture, although my assumption is that there must be at least one Holyoake present. I can see a couple of possible candidates.
If anyone does recognise any of the volunteers, I’d love to hear from you in the comments.
I missed Channel 4’s “Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks” last night. However, the headline was that by an eight percentage point margin, Britain would now prefer to remain in the EU. Jonathan Calder noted yesterday evening that a number of areas in the East Midlands would now vote to remain. My home city of Derby is one of them.
In the June 2016 referendum, 57.22% of those voting in Derby said that they wanted to leave the EU. Survation’s data for Channel 4 now suggests that only a minority – 49.8% – are comfortable with that choice. This represents a 7.42 percentage point change in favour of remaining in the EU – the equivalent of around 1 in 8 voters switching from leave to remain.
The other cities in the East Midlands have seen even larger movements in opinion. Leicester is ever more firmly in the remain camp by 10.59 percentage points. Nottingham (10.77% change) and Lincoln (9.41% change), like Derby, have switched from leave to remain.
Of course, this is all moot unless our MPs choose to act on new information about the public mood. You can politely encourage your MP to do so by writing to them at the House of Commons. Alternatively, you may want to customise Open Britain’s latest email template.
Since I last wrote on T+30 I’ve continued to make progress. I’m still tired much of the time and if sleeping was an Olympic sport I’d be a certainty for the gold medal. However, it feels as if some kind of normality might not be that far away.
This is the easiest to measure. Since T+30:
This is a little harder to measure, but since T+30:
Since I started publishing my father’s photographs of bygone Spondon, I’ve been delighted by the interest that they’ve attracted. I was recently contacted by Kaff at Cherrytree Picture Framers in Spondon who asked if she could create display prints from four of them.
Yesterday I saw the results of her efforts – and they’re truly stunning.
The blemishes which scarred the original slides and negatives have been skillfully removed. High resolution scans (rather than scaled-down images from this blog) were used, producing great quality prints.
The photographs are currently on display at 3 Moor Street, Spondon. Prints can be purchased in different sizes and frames.
The best way to appreciate the pictures is to go in person. However, if you’re unable to visit and want to take a closer look, the colour photographs are blemish-free versions of the first two in this post. The black and white photographs are featured here.
An 8mm cine film of floats and marching bands participating in the 1977 Ockbrook & Borrowash Carnival. It was shot opposite the shops on Priorway Avenue. Corona soft drinks were still going strong (a wastebin with Corona branding appears 2s in). The Borrowash Mother and Baby club had clearly spent a lot of time and effort on their Magic Roundabout float (10s). The paddle steamer float that follows is equally impressive.
The dangers of open-sided carnival floats can be seen at 61s as the lawn tennis club lorry comes to a sudden stop. Despite this mishap, Ockbrook & Borrowash Lawn Tennis Club would seem to be celebrating their centenary next year.
But without me serving cotton wool balls into the crowd, fortunately.
Thirty six seconds of cine film from the British Celanese Gala Day, held at their social club in Spondon, 1969. I have rather less hair these days and haven’t troubled a barber in months. That’s probably “a good thing”, judging by my style in this clip.