On reflection perhaps unicornism is dying in the Tory party

Reflecting on yesterday evening’s post, perhaps the more interesting story is that around 30% of Tory members are prepared to stop Brexit if they thought it would damage the country. It’s only one data point, but I wonder which way the trend is heading? Maybe Brexit unicornism is starting to die in the Tory party.

Brexit unicorns. Every bit as likely as an electric Caterham 7. But less real.
The Tories may be prepared to sacrifice their Brexit unicorns after all.

Although all the remaining candidates still say that Brexit is a given, that block of 30% must be giving them pause for thought. And, perhaps, a potential way out after all for a smart Tory PM.

If I can’t have a unicorn, no one can

Meanwhile, over in another political leadership contest, their unicorn-loving electorate are happy to destroy the UK and our economy. I don’t remember seeing that on the side of a bus in June 2016.

The simple conclusion is that the membership of the self-styled Conservative and Unionist Party is:

  • No longer unionist
  • No longer cares about wasting your money
  • Happy to die on the altar of Brexit

… but prefers to inflict such chaos on the country themselves, rather than let Jeremy Corbyn do it for them. What patriots they are.

Fortunately, Jo Swinson has found a rational order to do these things in for whoever their future leader is Boris Johnson. (Spoiler – only one of them needs to happen).

Say Bollocks to Cancer and Bollocks to Brexit

Join me, my family and friends and say Bollocks to Cancer.

Also please use your vote tomorrow to say Bollocks to Brexit.

Vote Liberal Democrat to say Bollocks to Brexit

The two requests are connected. The development of novel cancer therapies relies on close European and international co-operation. The vacuum left by a mad no-deal Brexit that Farage, half the Tory cabinet and their elitist chums want will kill the sick.

So vote for a genuinely pro-remain party. I recommend supporting the Liberal Democrats as they have the best chance of frustrating the Brexiters, but whatever. Just vote. Defeat the unpatriotic nationalist elites. And tell your family, friends and neighbours to do the same.

This is no time for our great country to become the twenty-first century equivalent of the GDR, isolated and poorer in an increasingly dangerous world.

When Brexit nonsense hits manufacturing reality

A Brexit manufacturing timeline.

May 2016

Professor Patrick Minford, of Economists for Brexit, says of manufacturing:

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.

Transitional arrangements should be made, lasting around 10 years, to help industries such as car manufacturing adjust.

June 2016

Mid-Derbyshire MP Pauline Latham, writing in the Derby Telegraph, explains why she wants to leave the EU:

At the weekend I made up my mind that Britain will be better off leaving the European Union. It is a decision that I have not arrived at easily, having been genuinely undecided since the referendum was announced.

Our manufacturing sector ranks number eight worldwide. The language we speak, English, is the international business language. Our judicial system is consistently rated as one of the least corrupt anywhere and our contract law is regarded across the world as the best for business. We have a long history of innovation, especially here in Derbyshire from even before the industrial revolution.

… Britain has a proud history and we want our children and grandchildren to enjoy the chances and opportunities we have had. I think this is possible outside of the EU and we should be confident that Britain can once again can stand by itself.

(This article has been removed since it was published, but fortunately I kept a copy).

March 2019

Johan van Zyl, head of Toyota’s European operations, speaking at the Geneva Motor Show to the BBC:

Mr van Zyl said it was vital that there was frictionless trade with the European Union.

He said Toyota would overcome any short-term problems at its Burnaston car plant near Derby, such as logistics, caused by leaving without a deal. But preparation for no-deal has been costly, he said, and in the long-term things could be “very difficult”.

Could work at Burnaston dry up after the current production cycle comes to an end? “The long-term effect could be that if it [Brexit] is very negative, that outcome is possible.”

Constantly improving competitiveness is vital, he said, adding: “But if the hurdles are becoming so high that you cannot achieve it then of course you can’t avoid it [hitting investment].”

Many people probably remember Minford’s comment about exiting the EU “mostly eliminating manufacturing”. It’s easier to forget that he was also arguing for a 10 year transition period prior to the referendum. One presumes he must be horrified by the negative consequences of a no-deal Brexit with no transition period. If so, he seems to be keeping very quiet about it.

As for my MP, Pauline Latham, she clearly forgot about a key reason why UK manufacturing was performing so well in 2016. The frictionless trade provided by the EU single market and customs union and required by Toyota to make sense of their investment here. Had that fact not slipped her mind, I’m sure she wouldn’t have advised her constituents to vote to leave. Surely? It wouldn’t have been rational, given the difficulty she found in making her decision.

We may be at the eleventh hour and 58th minute before Brexit, but if Latham is a genuine champion of manufacturing in Derby, she needs to take Minford’s advice. Rather than the no-deal desired by her ERG colleagues, she must vote for an extension to Article 50. That way, her government may stand an outside chance of obtaining Minford’s 10 year transition period.

Alternatively, she could recognise that she was poorly advised in June 2016 by the Brexiter elite. It would be the mark of a principled politician to acknowledge that, after all, EU membership provides the best chance of giving our children and grandchildren the opportunities we’ve enjoyed since 1973. Voting to revoke Article 50 would be a start to repairing the damage of the last two years.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Waiting for a disastrous Brexit.
The chickens are coming home to roost. Waiting for a disastrous Brexit.

Brexit stockpiling: I’ve got carrots and olives and I swear there’s no guns

Last week I was approached by Chris Doidge from BBC Radio Derby. He asked me if I wanted to be interviewed about my no-deal Brexit stockpiling plans. I agreed and we talked last Thursday. Unsurprisingly, the news surrounding the disastrous A52 redevelopment project meant that it wasn’t broadcast until yesterday morning. It’s available on BBC Sounds for around the next four weeks if you’d like to listen to what I said (1 hour 15 minutes in).

Faint praise for the interview included these gems from my daughters:

Listened expecting to cringe throughout but you don’t sound like you’ve totally lost touch with reality so congratulations.

So it’s a no to the underground bunker then?

The BBC later reported that Michael Gove had been warned – yet again – about the appalling consequences of a no-deal Brexit on food supplies. Then there’s also this – taken from the 31st January blog post of Riverford founder Guy Singh-Watson. I’m sure that no-one, whether they voted leave or remain, voted for food riots.

Riverford founder Guy Singh-Watson on the misery of planning for a no-deal Brexit
Riverford founder Guy Singh-Watson on the misery of planning for a no-deal Brexit and his concern over possible food riots.

I’d therefore argue that evidence from the experts suggests I continue to have a far more lucid grip on reality than that the Tory leader of Derbyshire County Council.

With Theresa May having disgracefully kicked the “meaningful” vote can down the road for at least a couple of weeks this afternoon, I’m going to continue stockpiling for the moment.

 

(*) Thank you to Jessica for providing the headline for this blog article – a very neat precis of what I said …

The Death of Grass: Brexit preppers

I’m annoyed (*) to report that I’ve now felt driven to start my own no deal Brexit stockpile. I don’t trust the government, nor at least two-thirds of Derby’s MPs (one Conservative, one Labour, both appalling), to act in our best interests. I hope that this post looks silly – really silly – very soon, but I’m too uncomfortable to do nothing before March 29th. Most people who answered my poll a couple of weeks ago – on Twitter and on Facebook – were thinking about stockpiling as well. There seems to be an increasing number of Brexit preppers around.

I’ve decided not to take my stockpiling to the extremes that some preppers have. I’m not stockpiling camping gas and bottled water for example. If the lights go out, the gas goes off and water supplies fail, then there’ll be rather more to worry about. It would take “Death of Grass” style preparations to properly address such a possibility. My brother isn’t a Yorkshire farmer with a stockade and machine gun, so I’m already at a disadvantage over the characters in John Christopher’s novel.

Back cover of "The death of grass" by John Christopher
This 1956 book obviously wasn’t written about Brexit, but … “The fearful national policies and immediate personal dangers which confront them are horrifying in their impact”

Instead, I’m targeting non-perishable and long shelf life goods, and aiming for 4-6 week’s supply by the time Brexit day arrives. I realise that I’m fortunate to be able to do this and others won’t be. If I’d been having my stem cell transplant around this time it wouldn’t have been possible.

My list currently has the following items on it. They’re mostly things I’d buy anyway (with a couple of exceptions), so I guess I could justify it as forward buying, but it’s not. I’d usually want to outsource stock rotation to the experts in the supermarket …

Non-perishables

  • Toilet paper, washing machine tablets, dishwasher tablets, razor blades, soap, other detergents and cleaners, deodorant, toothpaste, over the counter medicines

Tinned food

  • Fish: Tuna, crab (not a fish, obviously), sardines, salmon, mackerel, pilchards
  • Meat: Cured chicken (I’m hoping that this tastes better than it sounds), tinned meat and tinned pies
  • Vegetables: Potatoes, carrots, sweetcorn, peas, chopped tomatoes, red kidney beans (UK grown fresh vegetables are in short supply in April and May)
  • Fruit: Grapefruit segments, pineapple, apple, berries
  • Convenience: Baked beans, spaghetti hoops, soup

Jars and bottles

  • Olives, salmon, crab and beef paste, mustard, oils, ketchup, Worcester sauce, vinegar, anchovies, pickled beetroot, honey, passata

Dried food

  • Pasta, rice, porridge oats, sugar, tea, coffee, gravy granules, stock cubes, milk powder, cornflakes, weetabix, nuts

Garden seeds

  • Salad leaves, runner beans, broad beans, tomatoes etc.

Liquid sustenance

  • Long-life orange juice, diet cola, beer, wine

While a calamitous no deal Brexit remains a possibility I shall keep on adding to my stocks. Once it’s clear that particular threat has gone away (and I hope that it does), then I will donate any surplus I have to a local food bank.

If you still think this is all a little extreme, even confident Tory Brexiter MPs seem to be stockpiling in the name of “preparedness”. I guess the snowdrifts must be really something to behold in Berwick if they last throughout the summer.

(*) “Annoyed” is typical British understatement, but I try to keep the language on here to PG levels.

Personal Brexit stockpiling

Are you stockpiling medicines, food or other items ahead of Brexit for personal use in the event of a catastrophe? Or do you have confidence in the government to make sure that life carries on as normal after March 29th? Votes and thoughts welcome – either on the twitter poll while it’s still open or in the comments below.

A hostage to fortune

I’m not necessarily known for the accuracy of my predictions. But having watched the coverage from Downing Street this morning while trying not to utter too many expletives, here’s my latest hostage to fortune.

I expect Theresa May to win the confidence vote tonight, with around 75-80 of her colleagues voting against her.

Not that it changes anything if she does win. It is all a self-indulgent side-show while the country burns – taking Derby with it. I hope that every member of the Conservative party is feeling a deep sense of shame.